Monthly Archives: October 2019

House Prices Are Declining In Amsterdam For The First Time Since 2013

The Dutch Realtor association NVM came out with their quarterly report on the housing market in The Netherlands this week. For the first time since the third quarter of 2013 the price of the average sold house in Amsterdam declined year over year.

Amsterdam housing average sales price
Amsterdam housing average sales price

Furthermore the average price per square meter (m2) is declining from last quarter. No year over year decline here yet. It will be interesting to watch to see if the trend continues.

Amsterdam average sales price per m2
Amsterdam housing average sales price per m2

The average time a house sits on the market has also been going up to an average of 31 days.

Amsterdam housing average days a house is for sale
Amsterdam housing average days a house is for sale

An Inverted Yield Curve Did Not Always Precede Recessions

I made a post before how an inversion of the yield curve has preceded the last 8 recessions in the US. Recently, I came across this interesting chart on Twitter which shows the yield curve spread for US treasuries with a maturity of 3 month and 10 year from the last 100 years.

This chart shows that yield curve inversions didn’t happen between the 1930’s and 1960’s before a recession happend.

Long Term Yield Curve Inversion Chart
Long Term Yield Curve Inversion Chart

Currently the US 3 month – 10 year yield curve is inverted.

Yield Curve Inversion 3 month - 10 year spread
Yield Curve Inversion 3 month – 10 year spread

Global PMI’s Are Rising Again After A Long Negative Streak

Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMI) are economic indicators derived from monthly surveys of private sector companies. Today the latest PMI Manufacturing Index for the US (The ISM Manufacturing Index) came out which was the most negative reading in the last decade.

Global manufacturing PMI’s are rising again though after a record streak of 15 negative months of declines. The last time this index went positive after a long streak of negative PMI’s it was 2009 and that turned out to to be the bottom and a great moment to buy stocks.

Global Manufacturing PMI
Number of months in a row of rising or falling Global Manufacturing PMI’s

The above index has coincided quite nicely with the Bloomberg World Stock Market Cap index which hit a high in January 2018. The index still hasn’t recovered since then.

Bloomberg World Stock Market Cap Index
Bloomberg World Stock Market Cap Index