Category Archives: US Dollar

Berkshire Hathaway’s Apple Stake

Berkshire Hathaway and Apple are currently the second and fifth company in the S&P 500 by weighting in the index. The market capitalisation for these companies are currently $ 980 billion for Apple and $525 for Berkshire Hathaway.

At this moment Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway holds a $ 50 billion stake in Apple. This position is 5% of the market capitalisation of Apple and more interestingly 10% of the market capitalisation of Berkshire Hathaway. The stake in Apple is 25% of Berkshire’s equity portfolio. Meanwhile Berkshire’s has hit the enormous amount of $ 122 billion in cash.

S&P 500 top 10 holdings
S&P 500 top 10 holdings as of September 12, 2019

Berkshire’s performance over the years has been stunning, as I’ve posted before. In euro’s though, the performance is even more stunning the last decade since the effect of the dollar gaining in value has added to performance.

Berkshire Hathaway B in Euro
Berkshire Hathaway B in Euro

No World’s Reserve Currency Status Lasts Forever

The U.S. dollar is the current world’s reserve currency. Being the world’s reserve currency is very beneficial because persons living in the country which issues the currency can import goods and borrow more cheaply because they do not need to exchange their currencies to do so. An example of this is the oil market where barrels of oil are trading in U.S. dollars.

Every now and then another currency will come along to become the new world’s reserve currency as the bar chart below shows. In my last post I described a few books that have been forecasting the end of the world’s reserve currency status for the U.S. dollar. According to the authors of those books the end of the world’s reserve currency status would be disastrous for the U.S. dollar. While nobody knows when it will happen it is inevitable that the U.S. dollar will someday be replaced by another currency as the world’s reserve currency. My personal opinion is that the next reserve currency will be some form of an international currency like the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights (SDR). But this leaves me with the question: is it really that bad for a currency to lose it’s world’s reserve currency status?

Global Reserve Currencies Since 1450

Global Reserve Currencies Since 1450

I found this chart of the British Pound from 1900 till now which shows that losing the reserve currency status did not change the exchange rate for the British Pound that much. The First and Second World War did arguably more damage. Most of its “demise” happend in the second half of the 20th century when U.S. economic dominance grew bigger and bigger and the U.K. endured a few periods of economic weaknesses. The British pound was still the third most held reserve currency in the world in 2006.

Pound Sterling Exchange Rate U.S. Dollar Since 1900

Pound Sterling Exchange Rate U.S. Dollar Since 1900

Where Is That Stock And Dollar Crash I’ve Been Waiting For All These Years?

Fear sells. For years a big fear-mongering industry has been putting out books and articles about how the economy is going down the drain soon and the U.S. dollar will be worth less than the paper it is printed on. The bears have been saying this for years. Here are a few (hilarious) examples of “Doom & Gloom” books over the years that I found.

Below is picture of an impressive 300-page book by Doug Casey called “Crisis Investing: Opportunities and Profits in the Coming Depression“. In this book Doug Casey makes the case that the market is about to crash any minute now! The dollar will be destroyed soon and the stock market is going to zero. The next great depression is just around the corner. You have to act fast before all your wealth, that you have been carefully building up for years, will vanish in front of your eyes! But wait.. Let’s check something.. When did this book hit the shelves? July 1980?! There certainly hasn’t been a “new great depression” since then.

Crisis Investing: Opportunities and Profits in the Coming Great Depression by Douglas Casey

Crisis Investing: Opportunities and Profits in the Coming Great Depression by Douglas Casey (1980)

Ok maybe Doug was just a little bit early on his call that ‘the world as we know it’ is going to end. What about this book from Jerome F. Smith: “The Coming Currency Collapse“. In this book Jerome describes how the dollar is going to be toast in the near future. Oh wait that one was penned down in September 1981. He’s only 33 years (and counting) off on his call of an imminent dollar crisis. The only thing that collapsed in all those years is the price of this book since you can now get it for $ 0.01.

Coming Currency Collapse by Jerome F. Smith (1981)

Coming Currency Collapse by Jerome F. Smith (1981)

What about Howard J. Ruff’s book “How To Prosper During The Coming Bad Years“? This book came out in 1984. Everyone who followed the advice in this book missed the greatest bull market in stocks ever. The S&P 500 was trading at 160 at the time. Some reviews for the book on the Amazon page even talk about all the “missed opportunities” investors lost because they followed the recommendations in this book.

How to Prosper During the Coming Bad Years by Howard J. Ruff (1984)

How to Prosper During the Coming Bad Years by Howard J. Ruff (1984)

But Howard J. Ruff was maybe just a few years off of his imminent call for a new period of “Doom & Gloom”. In this book I got here by Martin D. Weiss called: “How To Survive The Money Panic” the author talks about the coming destruction of the U.S. economy and the U.S. dollar (of course). This one came out in 1989.

The Money Panic by Martin D. Weiss (1989)

The Money Panic by Martin D. Weiss (1989)

And then there is this one by Ravi Bata called The Great Depression of 1990. 1990? You got to be kidding me.

The Great Depression Of 1990 by Ravi Bata (1988)

The Great Depression Of 1990 by Ravi Bata (1988)

Here are some more recent ones:

The Dollar Crisis: Causes Consequences, Cures by Richard Duncan. This book came out in 2005.

The Dollar Crisis: Causes Consequences, Cures by Richard Duncan (2005)

The Dollar Crisis: Causes Consequences, Cures by Richard Duncan (2005)

This one is more bizarre because shortly after this book was published in 2008 the dollar index set a long term bottom (chart) and is trading higher ever since. The Collapse of the Dollar and How to Profit from It by James Turk.

The Collapse of the Dollar and How to Profit from It by James Turk (2008)

The Collapse of the Dollar and How to Profit from It by James Turk (2008)

And here is one from November 2013 where the author is forecasting a stock market crash in 2016. The Crash of 2016: The Plot to Destroy America – and What We Can Do to Stop It by Thom Hartmann.

The Crash of 2016: The Plot to Destroy America - and What We Can Do to Stop It by Thom Hartmann (2013)

The Crash of 2016: The Plot to Destroy America – and What We Can Do to Stop It by Thom Hartmann (2013)

The last time I checked (5 minutes ago) the S&P 500 was still trading near all time highs. The U.S. Dollar is still the world reserve currency and certainly not reduced to toilet paper. The Euro is still around as are a lot of other economies and currencies the bears have been warning us for, for years.

All the authors of the books above are still touting their doom & gloom stories to this day.

The bottom line is this: Although the bears are sometimes right about their calls for stock market crashes (2000-2002 and 2008-2009) and housing market crashes (2006-2011) the crashes never seem to bring us to a new normal of forever lower stock/housing prices and a destroyed currency (at least for the U.S. market and the U.S. dollar).

This doesn’t mean that it’s never smart to be a bear. It can be very profitable, but you need to have your timing almost exactly right. It is no secret that the market goes up on average every year (7%).

Being a long term bear is thus bad for your financial health.