The Dutch Statistics Bureau CBS came out last week with a new monthly update on Dutch house prices. The data is showing that the speed at of which house prices in The Netherlands are rising is slowly declining.
Meanwhile the Dutch government has come out in the past few weeks with changes to the taxing of property investments in box 3 (investment properties will be taxed higher) and it has proposed a new law which will limit the amount of the WOZ-waarde (the value of a home used for taxation purposes) to be used as points to calculate whether a house will be classified for rent control or not. These two changes could potentially have a big impact on the prices of Dutch homes.
At this moment Dutch house prices were 5,7% higher in August 2019 than a year before. This is down from the 9,5% year over year growth of prices in November 2018.
The average sales price of Dutch home has risen to a price of € 316,000. At the bottom in June 2013 the average sales price of house in The Netherlands was € 206.000. From the bottom in 2013 prices have risen a total of 53%.
The rise in prices has led to a decline in houses that are sold per month. As can be seen in the two below charts the amount of houses that are sold each month has been declining. This is also partly caused by a shortage of houses in the Netherlands.
At this moment the value of all houses sold in the Netherlands is not showing any signs of weakness but a drop can happen suddenly as the below chart shows.
The AEX index is an index grossly composed of the 25 largest listed companies by market capitalisation on the Amsterdam Stock Exchange (Euronext). As of today the company with the highest weighting in the index is ASML. As can be seen in the table below is that the top 5 companies in the index have a total weighting of almost 50% while the top 10 has a total weighting of almost 70% in the index.
In the past I’ve shared a chart which showed the AEX index since inception with dividends re-invested and without. It’s time to share an updated version of that chart. This chart is a great example of how the compounding of dividends positively impacts long term investment returns. Via Twitter.
The money supplyis the total amount of monetary assetsavailable in an economy at a specific time. There are different ways to calculate the amount of money in an economy and M3 is the most broad definition. This is important because there is strong empirical evidence of a direct relation between money supply growth and long-term price inflation, at least for rapid increases in the amount of money in the economy.
The interesting thing is that the amount of money in the Dutch economy has been declining for over 2 years now. I guess it has to do with people using their savings to pay down debt on their mortgages and other types of loans.
Not surprisingly inflation in the Netherlands is low. Last June it was only 0.9% according to CBS.